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☆ For traders, September's ECB move is far from clear cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoData on Thursday showed euro zone inflation held at 5.3% in August rather than dropping. Overall money supply in the bloc contracted in July for the first time since 2010, demonstrating the extent to which ECB policy has tightened financial conditions. And even if investors are divided on September’s decision, the consensus is that the ECB will be done raising rates soon. Longer-term, markets expect the ECB to start cutting rates by the second quarter of 2024. (This story has been corrected to clarify that Aviva favours a small overweight in European bonds, not longer-dated euro zone bonds, in paragraph 19)

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Piet Christiansen, ’ indecisiveness, ” Christiansen, Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, ”, Mauro Valle, Valle, Edward Hutchings, Frederik Ducrozet, ” Aviva’s Hutchings, ” Pictet’s Ducrozet Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Danske Bank, Generali Investments, Treasury, Aviva Investors, Pictet Wealth Management, Aviva Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Austrian

☆ Analysis-For traders, September's ECB move is far from clear cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoData on Thursday showed euro zone inflation held at 5.3% in August rather than dropping. Another inflation hawk, Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann, said the ECB could deliver “another hike or two”. Overall money supply in the bloc contracted in July for the first time since 2010, demonstrating the extent to which ECB policy has tightened financial conditions. And even if investors are divided on September’s decision, the consensus is that the ECB will be done raising rates soon. Longer-term, markets expect the ECB to start cutting rates by the second quarter of 2024.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Piet Christiansen, ’ indecisiveness, ” Christiansen, Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, ”, Mauro Valle, Valle, Edward Hutchings, Frederik Ducrozet, Aviva’s Hutchinson, ” Pictet’s Ducrozet Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Danske Bank, Generali Investments, Treasury, Aviva Investors, Pictet Wealth Management Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Austrian

☆ Stubborn euro zone inflation fails to settle ECB rate debate
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The ECB has raised rates at its fastest pace on record in the past year, taking them to a more than two-decade high. "We still do not expect the Governing Council to raise key rates further at its September meeting." "The latest inflation figures raise the probability of a new increase in interest rates in September," Diego Iscaro at S&P Global Market Intelligence said. "However, this is far from a done deal, and a rapidly deteriorating economic background will still give doves in the ECB's Governing Council plenty of ammunition to argue for a pause." "This decline could counteract our efforts to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner."

Persons: Eric Gaillard, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Christoph Weil, Diego Iscaro, Isabel Schnabel, Schnabel, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Central Bank, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, P Global Market Intelligence, Thomson Locations: Nice, France, Austria's, ECB's, Frankfurt

☆ Euro zone price rises steady for August but core inflation declines further
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), speaks during an ECB press conference in July. Inflation in the euro zone came in higher than analysts had expected for the month of August, although coming in unchanged from the previous month and complicating the role of the region's central bank. European Central Bank Member Robert Holzmann said the data shows inflation is still persistent, according to Reuters. He, one of the more hawkish members of the ECB, added that the latest figures pose a "conundrum" for the central bank. The central bank is due to meet on Sept. 14 and announce whether it is raising rates further.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Dow Jones, Robert Holzmann, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters

RBI has not yet outlined its plan to supervisors at the European Central Bank (ECB), two people with knowledge of its dealings with the central bank said, making a spin-off unlikely by September. Furthermore, the approval of Russia's central bank, finance ministry and, in the event of a sale, even Russian President Vladimir Putin, will be needed before RBI acts. The ECB urged RBI not to pay a dividend this year because of its concerns over Russia, one of the people said. Austria's central bank and the ECB declined to comment. Another source said he has urged the U.S. not to pressure RBI.

Persons: Raiffeisen, Vladimir Putin, UniCredit, month's Wagner, Robert Holzmann, Christine Lagarde, Magnus Brunner, Brian Nelson, Francesco Canepa, John O'Donnell, Alexander Smith Organizations: Raiffeisen, Reuters, Austrian, European Central Bank, ECB, Treasury, Foreign Assets, OFAC, U.S, Thomson Locations: VIENNA, Russia, Austria, Moscow, U.S, Ukraine, Europe, Washington, Vienna, Soviet, Austrian, United States, Frankfurt

☆ ECB policymakers line up behind rate hike plans
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Underlying inflation eased to 5.3% in May, but a big chunk of the drop was due to a one-off administrative discount in German transport prices. Wunsch has said in the past that the ECB's deposit rate could hit 4% if underlying inflation did not moderate. Joining the chorus behind rate hikes, Estonian central bank chief Madis Muller said more rate action is needed. "Euro zone interest rates have not yet peaked," Muller said in a statement. "The ultimate goal is clear for the central bank - we need to quickly get the price rise under control."

Persons: Joachim Nagel, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, Austria's Robert Holzmann, Gediminas Simkus, Madis Muller, " Muller, Balazs Koranyi, Andrius Sytas, Julia Payne, Francois Murphy, Terje Solsvik, Alex Richardson, Toby Chopra, Jan Harvey Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Belgian, U.S, Estonian

☆ All ECB policymakers but one approve small hike with more to come -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Austria's Robert Holzmann was the sole holdout as the euro zone's central bankers decided on a 25-basis-point rate increase, but he lacked voting rights due to a scheduled rotation on the ECB's Governing Council, the sources said. Holzmann did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and an ECB spokesman declined to comment. Some policymakers, they said, privately anticipate at least two if not three more hikes by the ECB, which has already raised rates seven times since last July by a total 375 basis points. Policymakers at Thursday's meeting were unanimous that the ECB should not sell bonds under its APP even after it stops replacing those that mature in July, the sources said. Reporting By Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt, editing by Mark HeinrichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Banking crisis forces ECB policymakers to rethink rate hikes, but focus still firmly on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

A sign for the European Central Bank (ECB) outside the bank's headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, Feb. 2, 2023. Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesEuropean Central Bank policymakers are reconsidering the path of interest rate hikes in light of last month's banking turmoil, but remain committed to reining in core inflation. However core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — rose to an all-time high of 5.7%. But he said policymakers will be examining the data for signs that core inflation is coming down and the bank's medium-term inflation target of 2% is within sight. So yes we are worried about the core inflation not yet peaking," Scicluna said.

☆ Exclusive: ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The ECB has raised rates by at least 50 basis points each at six successive meetings -- the fastest pace on record -- to fight stubbornly high inflation. The sources said that some are advocating no change in May - mostly the same Southern European policymakers who did not support last month's 50 basis point increase, while others - also a small group - argue for another 50 basis point hike. Klaas Knot of the Netherlands said it was unclear whether 50 basis points would be needed or if 25 was enough. Slovakia's Peter Kazimir said the ECB could perhaps slow down the pace of its increases while Austria's Robert Holzmann meanwhile backed another 50 basis point move. Markets currently price 25 basis point hikes each in May and June, while a third such increase is fully priced in by September.

☆ Exclusive: ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May , sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ ECB policymaker says a 50-basis-point rate hike 'could be in the ballpark' at its next meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB policymaker says a 50-basis-point rate hike 'could be in the ballpark' at its next meetingRobert Holzmann, ECB policymaker and governor of the Austrian National Bank, told CNBC that if the economic outlook changes, the central bank will change its approach to interest rates.

☆ A top tip for central banks: talk less, smile more
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Investors hang on central bankers’ every word, hoping to gain an edge for their next trade. But with consumer prices rising at the fastest pace in decades, central bankers can’t easily cut borrowing costs, either. Chatty central banks are a relatively new phenomenon. Investors are also more sensitive to central banks today than in years past. Still, being more careful about what’s said, and how it’s said, could help central banks better balance their priorities.

☆ Morning Bid: Signs of confidence re-emerge after bank storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

While UBS shares were hammered in early trading on Monday after its shotgun marriage with troubled Credit Suisse following an intervention by Swiss authorities, the bank's shares pared most of the losses towards the close. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the market turmoil might do some of the ECB's work for it in dampening demand and inflation. Markets have been on high alert for central banks to raise interest rates sharply to cope with high inflation. ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann watered down his recent call for three more rate increases of 50 basis points in quick succession. Policy decision is on WednesdayReporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Bradley PerrettOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Gold prices ease as market focus turns to US Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,977.69 per ounce, as of 0044 GMT. * Gold tends to benefit from low interest rates as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. * The dollar edged up 0.1%, making bullion less attractive for buyers holding other currencies. * SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.38% to 924.55 tonnes on Monday from 921.08 tonnes on Friday. * Spot silver edged down 0.1% to $22.49 per ounce, platinum was flat at $988.33 and palladium was listless at $1,413.97.

☆ ECB's Holzmann waters down call for three more rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

VIENNA, March 20 (Reuters) - European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann on Monday watered down his recent call for three further interest-rate increases of 50 basis points in quick succession. Holzmann, who heads the Austrian National Bank, told German business daily Handelsblatt two weeks ago the ECB should raise rates by 50 basis points at each of its next four meetings because inflation was proving stubborn. That was a likely reference to how higher central bank rates and jitters in the banking sector tend to have the same effect by discouraging lending and cooling economic activity. Similarly, Holzmann said that since his Handelsblatt interview liquidity in the financial system had decreased, referring to banking stocks' recent fall on fears of a new banking crisis. Reporting by Francois Murphy and Alexandra Schwarz-Goerlich; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/2] A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. The ECB has hiked rates by 350 basis points since last July, lifting its benchmark refinancing rate to 3.5% on Thursday. Wunsch said the ECB had a "long way to go" if its baseline inflation forecast materialised. Credit Suisse was dealing with "a longstanding restructuring problem", he added. Asked about the future of Credit Suisse, Wunsch said he only saw a "very low" likelihood that the bank might go bankrupt.

Markets have ramped up bets on further rate increases after the ECB has already tightened monetary policy by 3 percentage points since July. ECB President Christine Lagarde reckons a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike "is very, very likely". "The ECB is prioritising getting policy rates as high as needed and nothing else is as important," Pictet Wealth Management's head of macroeconomic research Frederik Ducrozet, said. Signs of economic resilience suggest ECB growth forecasts, also out on Thursday, could be revised upwards for 2023. Falling energy prices and a stronger euro, up around 6% in trade-weighted terms from August lows, suggest headline inflation forecasts could be revised lower.

☆ Take Five: A macro-packed punch for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/ THE PRICE IS RIGHTU.S. inflation data have been pivot points for markets and Tuesday's report will likely be consequential as investors gauge whether the Federal Reserve will return to the jumbo-sized rate hikes that shook markets last year. The European Central Bank has raised rates by 3 percentage points since July to 2.5% and looks set for another half-point increase on Thursday. Austria's central bank chief Robert Holzmann wants half-point rises at each of the next four meetings. Riskier, more fragile emerging markets, especially those with twin deficits, could feel the heaviest punch if the Fed goes all the way to 6%. Emerging markets countries hiking (+) or cutting (-) their policy ratesCompiled by Amanda Cooper; Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Kripa Jayaram and Vincent Flasseur; Edited by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Italy's Visco raps ECB colleagues in widening hawk-dove divide
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Gavin Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ROME, March 8 (Reuters) - European Central Bank governing council member Ignazio Visco on Wednesday criticized some fellow policymakers for comments on future interest rates that diverged from what had been agreed at ECB meetings. "For this reason I don't appreciate comments by my colleagues regarding future and prolonged increases in rates," Visco added, in unusually blunt remarks that highlight a widening rift at the Frankfurt-based ECB. Visco said that while the ECB had managed to stabilise inflation expectations, geopolitical uncertainties meant economic developments were hard to predict. Other governing council members, considered policy hawks who attach overriding importance to curbing inflation even if it means hurting growth and employment, have gone further. The ECB has no policy meeting in April.

☆ Morning Bid: Don't fight central banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaJudging by the improved mood in global equity markets, investors are once again having a go at central banks. Will Powell be able to send a decisive message to markets about the future pace of interest rate increases? Fed, ECB and BoE 'terminal rates' riseThe European Central Bank has already raised rates to 2.5%, a 3 percentage point increase since July and essentially promised another half a percentage point increase on March 16. Strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute expect the trend to end as recent data pushes the European Central Bank to raise rates and keep them higher for longer. And Schroders' analysts are in the camp of those who expect interest rates to be kept on hold by the ECB from March.

[1/2] U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks to David Rubenstein (not pictured) during a meeting of The Economic Club of Washington, at the Renaissance Hotel in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 7, 2023. REUTERS/Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/File PhotoMarch 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Arguably the main event in Asia will be the expected quarter point rate hike from the RBA, which would take the cash rate up to 3.60%. Tuesday's focus rests squarely on the first of two Congressional appearances this week from Powell. On the Asian data front, China's FX reserves for February could cast a light on whether Beijing is starting to reduce its huge holdings of dollar-denominated assets amid the sharp rise in U.S.-Chinese tensions.

☆ ECB's Holzmann calls for four more 50 bps rate hikes- Handelsblatt
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, March 6 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank should raise interest rates by 50 basis points at each of its next four meetings as inflation is proving to be stubborn, Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann told German business daily Handelsblatt. The ECB has raised rates by 3 percentage points since July and flagged a 50 basis point increase for March. Holzmann, an outspoken conservative - or hawk in policy terms - however said that based on current trends, he would favour 50 basis point moves in March, May, June and July. "I expect it to take a very long time for inflation to come down," Holzmann was quoted on Monday as saying. The four steps advocated by Holzmann would take the deposit rate to 4.5%, well above the 4% peak rate priced in by markets, a level no other policymaker has so far advocated in public.

☆ ECB's Holzmann expects at least two rate increases in H1 -newspaper
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

VIENNA, Jan 20 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymaker Robert Holzmann expects at least two interest-rate increases of 50 basis points each in the first half of this year, he said in an interview with Austrian newspaper Die Presse published on Friday. Holzmann said that while headline inflation has eased, core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, had not. He said that as long as core inflation had not fallen significantly interest rates would have to keep rising. "Core inflation is currently at more than 5%, which is still two-and-a-half times our target," he said. Reporting by Francois Murphy; Additional reporting by Frank Siebelt in Frankfurt; Editing by Hugh LawsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB's Schnabel pushes back on smaller rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

However Schnabel, the most influential voice in the hawkish camp, said this was premature and could even prove counter-productive. "Incoming data so far suggest that the room for slowing down the pace of interest rate adjustments remains limited, even as we are approaching estimates of the 'neutral' rate," she told an event in London. "The extraordinarily large degree of uncertainty surrounding such estimates implies that they cannot serve as a yardstick to inform the appropriate pace of interest rate adjustments. Dutch governor Knot expressed doubts over market expectations for the ECB's deposit rate, currently at 1.5%, to peak at 3%. In all honesty, I'm not sure about that," Knot told a hearing at the Dutch parliament.

☆ ECB's Holzmann says leaning towards a 0.75% rate hike as things stand
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

VIENNA, Nov 22 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymaker Robert Holzmann said on Tuesday he has not decided how he will vote at the next rate-setting meeting in December but unless there is a significant improvement he will favour an increase of 0.75 points. Holzmann told a news conference he could not decide between 0.5 points and 0.75 points but as things currently stood he preferred the latter. Reporting by Francois Murphy; Editing by Frank Jack DanielOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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